Fairfax County: Their Prices Are INSANE!
A quick price check on the upside-down housing market in my region
I received a comment on a recent piece, about a controversial home addition in Fairfax County, Virginia, that I thought was interesting:
Something more scaled down would be far better.
Probably would have been cheaper to have simply bought a bigger house elsewhere but possibly not if they were doing all the work themselves.
My big old house used to be two apartments. I know the woman who converted it back. The city is happy that this neighborhood is once again all single-family. However, I’m very much considering the possibility of someday renting part of it to a roommate because my kids are grown and it’s too big. Should something happen to my husband, I’d probably seek a roommate/boarder.
I observed that in Fairfax County, and in much of the inner D.C. area, a smaller house is likely to be around $600,000, let alone a house large enough for an extended/multigenerational family, which is what the controversial addition is for.
She added: “My big Victorian cost me less than $100K and would not sell for much more than that. The REALLY nice historic homes a block away go for more, but nothing like $600k.”
This prompted me to take a look at Zillow, which I haven’t done, really, since we bought our house. It is so easy to forget the stress of looking for somewhere to live, after you’ve moved in. It’s so easy to forget the astronomical home price your mortgage payment represents. To forget the fear that you won’t be able to live somewhere close to things you care about, or to job opportunities. Perhaps it’s all so unpleasant that you just erase it in your mind, and retcon it as having been a bit stressful, yes, nothing really, you know. Just work hard. What are you whining about? Are you entitled? There’s this funny thing where empathy kind of requires that you share in people’s difficulties, and it’s much easier not to.
Even I was a bit shocked to actually see these prices again, and the sorts of houses they can get you. Let me start with this: as of December 30, as I’m working on this piece as a draft, there were only fourteen detached, single-family houses in the entirety of Fairfax County being offered for less than $600,000. (And even then, five of those are at $599,000 or above!) There are about 900 listings in total.
The cheapest detached, single-family house in the entire county available as of that date was this one, listed at $548,000 and sporting three bedrooms, one bathroom, 1,088 square feet, and, according to the listing, a build date of 1925.
The official property record also says 1925, and the earliest aerial imagery I can find, from 1949, has a few small homes in the immediate area, but 1949 predates the modern suburban street network that’s there now.
Take a look at the Google Maps image:
And here’s the listing, which barely even pretends to be selling an actual house to move into and live in:
Welcome to 5715 Magnolia Lane, a rare chance to own an exceptional lot in a sought-after location. This property is being sold as-is, offering endless possibilities for builders, investors, or visionary homeowners. The existing home can be renovated or removed entirely to make way for a brand-new dream residence. Nestled on a generous and private lot, this parcel boasts mature trees, a peaceful setting, and convenient access to major commuter routes, shopping, and dining. Whether you’re looking to restore the current structure or start fresh with new construction, the value lies in the land and location. Don’t miss this unique investment opportunity in a well-established neighborhood. Bring your architect, your vision, and your contractor—this is your blank canvas. Property is sold strictly as-is. Buyer responsible for all inspections, permits, and due diligence.
If that’s what the real-estate agent wrote, you can only imagine the condition the house is actually in.
If you jump into the $700s or $800s, or even occasionally the high $600s, you can find much, much nicer and larger houses, which makes the idea of buying something like this and pouring countless hours and unforeseen sums of money (contractors are expensive here too, and DIY jobs can easily go wrong and cost more than they save) into it pretty uneconomic.
I would go as far as to say that with possible very rare exceptions, it is literally not possible to buy a small detached, single-family house in Fairfax County, fix it up with elbow grease, and end up ahead compared to simply buying a nicer house. That opportunity, effectively, no longer exists, because you’re competing with people who are building a brand new dream house, or with builders who intend to build and then sell.
Now I said that if you go into the $700s or $800s, you can get a much nicer house. Sure you could, but $100,000, $150,000, or $200,000 is very big money. And you could pay much less for a condo, and a similar amount for a townhome, infinitely nicer than one of the cheap teardown-ready detached houses. So my point is not that everyone should just buy an $800,000 detached house. It’s that the absence of reasonably affordable detached houses is important and tells us something.
What it means is that the path to homeownership is different and looks different today. It’s often said that starter homes are no longer built, which is partially true. But from another perspective, what a starter home is changes with land values.
In places where land is cheap—either economically depressed areas, or far exurbs—you get more house for your money. It might make sense to build new small houses out there. In areas with higher land values, you pay more, and it makes more sense to build multifamily homes.
This is what gets missed in discussions of housing and density. Density follows from lots of people moving to a place for opportunity. Density is more people and scarcer land. It isn’t a plot. It doesn’t have to be anyone’s preference, per se. If it permitted, it will happen, because it is the logic of construction in expensive, land-scarce places. Density is a hack to make homes and commercial spaces cheaper when land is expensive. That is it. That is what density is.
The acute level of unaffordability in Fairfax County and other similar areas is because the zoning ordinances do not keep pace with the economic reality, and do not permit development at the dense scale that would render homes affordable. Or to put it more succinctly, zoning artificially severs the housing market from the rest of the economy.
The condo prices are much tamer; condos that appears immediately inhabitable can be had for as little as $200,000 or even less. Of course they are; they’re smaller. In an urbanized area with high land prices, you trade less private space for the privilege of living in a place so full of opportunity and activity. If you don’t want to make that trade, you don’t impose artificial restraints on the housing market; you move further away, where you can get more private space/land/house size in exchange for it being further away from things. This is not ideology. This is economics.
Unfortunately, many of these smaller homes in my county are still in aging garden-apartment structures, and still require cars to get to most things. There should be many, many more homes in this size and price range, in modern buildings, laid out in a way that the raw density facilitates at least partial walkability.
In other words, the housing prices are telling us that Fairfax County “wants” to be much, much more urbanized. Much denser, with less space allocated for cars, with a larger share of homes attached or in multifamily structures. Unaffordable suburban localities are what bad zoning creates out of places that want to be cities.
The phenomenon that we call the “housing crisis” is the failure of the zoning and land-use rules to facilitate the realization of the character of a place like this.
Related Reading:
“Give Me a House,” Says Almost No One
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My wife and I moved from Fairfax County a few years ago (where I grew up) to Indianapolis. Most of our reasoning was because, despite the fact that we worked two wonderful jobs, we knew we’d never be able to afford a decent home.
We were able to purchase a new single family home just a mile from the heart of downtown Indy for less than half of what we would have paid in Fairfax County. All the benefits of city life - including walking distance to fine dining, amphitheaters, and major sporting events - at a fraction of the cost.
We still have may friends and family members back in Fairfax. Can’t say we miss it!
I just looked up my childhood home in Alexandria, which was new when my parents bought it in 1997. They purchased it for $350k. It’s now estimated at 1.1 mill. Crazy.
Keep up the good work. As an urban pastor, I really benefit from what you do!
This is interesting. I grew up in Alexandria, and my cousins still live in the area. One of my cousins and her husband recently moved to Richmond because they were priced out of Northern Virginia. I wondered how that could possibly be, as they both work for private consulting companies, so presumably both make six figures. But now it all makes sense!!!